How the National Safety Index works
This page is generated from the methodology the system is actually using, so it cannot drift from the calculation.
Version in use: v1.0
Settings fingerprint 0e73b0c95f08e38241b56d26f71f82f104e1826158ccad0daf565b9f79c65b06
| Area | Weight | Linked NSS threat |
|---|---|---|
| Road Traffic Accidents | 35% | Health Threats |
| Industrial & Mining Accidents | 20% | Economic Threats |
| Fire Incidents | 15% | Natural Disasters |
| Crime-Related Insurance Claims | 15% | Economic Threats; also Transnational Organised Crime |
| Public Infrastructure Failures | 10% | Disruptions to CNI; also Energy Supply |
| Environmental Events | 5% | Climate Change; also Natural Disasters |
What the NSI covers
A national safety and resilience risk index, based initially on measurable, economically consequential events.
The score compares this month's measured safety losses with the five-year norm for the same month. It does not measure every aspect of national safety. Each indicator has one of three statuses, so that only insurable losses ever move money.
| Status | Meaning | Indicators |
|---|---|---|
| In the score | Feeds the score and the premium surcharge. Must be a measurable, insurable loss. | Road Traffic Accidents, Industrial & Mining Accidents, Fire Incidents, Crime-Related Insurance Claims, Public Infrastructure Failures, Environmental Events |
| Watched, not scored | Recorded and tracked by the Authority. Never part of the score or the surcharge. | Health Threats, Cyberspace Security, Food Insecurity, Border Security, Land Management, Inter Party Political Violence, Transnational Organised Crime |
| Candidate | Could join the score later, once it passes the test below. | Cyberspace Security: Cyber-insurance claims or national incident-response team counts. Needs a regular insurer or incident-team data feed. Health Threats (outbreaks): Outbreak notifications from the health ministry. Needs an agreed severity and economic loss measure. Energy Supply: Hours of major supply interruption. Needs agreed outage reporting from the utility. Food Insecurity: Crop and livestock loss claims. Seasonal; needs agricultural insurer data. |
| Not measured | Not recorded by the index. | Terrorism & Violent Extremism: Intelligence-led. Not recorded by the NSI. Espionage: Intelligence-led. Not recorded by the NSI. CBRN: Intelligence- and defence-led. Not recorded by the NSI. Sovereignty & Territorial Integrity: Defence-led. Not recorded by the NSI. Maritime Security: Concerns trade routes through neighbouring ports. No reportable incident type in the pilot. Youth Unemployment & Poverty: A condition measured by surveys, not an incident. Not an insurable-loss measure. |
Test for joining the score
- It can be measured every month from a named, regular source.
- It is economically consequential: it can be expressed as a loss in kwacha.
- The agency reporting it cannot easily change the figure to its own advantage.
- It is approved as a new methodology version by one administrator and a second one. Past months are never recalculated.
Steps
- Count approved events. Only reports that have been submitted, validated and approved by three different people are counted. A real-world event reported by several agencies counts once.
- Benchmark. For each area, the average of the same calendar month over the previous 5 years.
- Compare. Three ratios against the benchmark: number of events (40%), severity (30%) and economic loss (30%). Severity points per event = 1 + 10 per death + 1 per injury.
- Score 1 to 10. Score = 10 − 7.5 × (ratio − 0.8), kept between 1 and 10.
- Combine. Weighted average of the six scores, rounded to one decimal place. The whole-number band is the figure rounded down.
- Surcharge. The band sets the National Safety Surcharge on premiums for the next month (maximum 10%).
| Band | Surcharge next month |
|---|---|
| 10 | 0% |
| 9 | 0% |
| 8 | 1% |
| 7 | 2% |
| 6 | 3% |
| 5 | 4% |
| 4 | 5% |
| 3 | 6% |
| 2 | 8% |
| 1 | 10% |
What is still a pilot assumption
The concept note sets out the idea (five-year benchmark, adjustment for severity and economic loss) but not the exact formulas. The items below were chosen to make the pilot work and are open for review by the National Safety Index Authority, the national statistics office and the insurance regulator. Changing any of them creates a new methodology version; past published months are never silently recalculated.
- Benchmark uses the same calendar month in each of the previous five years, so seasonal swings do not look like danger.
- Ratio weights of 40% count, 30% severity, 30% loss.
- Severity points: 1 per event, 10 per death, 1 per injury.
- The scoring line: a ratio of 0.8 scores 10, and each further 1.0 above that costs 7.5 points.
- Economic loss is the estimated direct loss in kwacha as reported and approved; inflation is not yet adjusted.
- Surcharge scale is the illustrative scale from the concept note, with a configurable cap.
- The Cyberspace Security threat and Youth Unemployment have no safety indicator yet.
Governance and controls
- Different people must enter, validate and approve each event; different people must run, approve and publish each month.
- Every action is written to a tamper-evident log in which each entry carries the fingerprint of the one before.
- Published months are locked. Reopening one needs a written reason and produces a visibly revised publication.
- Every approved event carries a fingerprint, so a later change to its figures is detected.
The Disaster & Resilience Fund
Surcharge income can be spent only on:
- Flood and drought response
- Epidemic containment
- Emergency infrastructure repair
- Fire and ambulance capacity upgrades
- Early warning systems
- Emergency logistics
The fund cannot pay recurrent salaries, political expenditure or general fiscal deficits. Every payment needs a request from one administrator and approval from another.